DIABETES 2030 – U.S., STATE, AND METROPOLITAN TRENDS
The Institute for Alternative Futures has updated its diabetes forecasting model and extended its projections to 2030. We have prepared estimates of the burden of diabetes in the years 2015, 2020, 20205, and 2030 for each of the 50 states plus 18 major metropolitan areas.
A grant from Novo Nordisk supported the Institute’s research. The data and forecasts are freely available for use by policy makers and legislators, reporters, members of the diabetes community, and the general public. The resultant professional article: Diabetes 2030: Insights from Yesterday, Today, and Future Trends, by Rowley, Bezold, Arikan, Byrne and Krohe published in Population Health Management has just been released ahead of print free to the public online at http://online.libertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/pop.2015.0181. It describes the methodology, diabetes trends from 2015 to 2030, and their implications for America. Full text HTML, full text PDF and Full Text PDF with links to references versions of the article are available at the web site.
The data have been analyzed and configured to help answer questions such as:
What will be the future cost of diabetes in a particular state or major city?
What will be the impact of diabetes on population groups that are disproportionately affected by diabetes, such as older adults?
How will the growing burden of diabetes affect employers and employees?
How many healthcare workers will be needed to manage diabetes in the next 15 years?
These projections of the human and economic impact of diabetes paint a vivid picture of the potential devastating future toll of diabetes in America, and underscore the need for immediate and aggressive action to help prevent diabetes whenever possible in those at risk, and improve the U.S. health care system to more effectively address the needs of people with diabetes.
Below you’ll find all of the data and forecasts, and information on our methodology and sources.
DATA AND FORECASTS
Alternatively, you can click here to download our summary spreadsheet with all of the data and forecasts.
FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES
This is a brief overview of the data sources and methodology used in developing the 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 diabetes forecasts for the U.S., states, and metro areas. A detailed paper of the methodology is being submitted for publication.
The prevalence of diagnosed diabetes for the U.S. in 2015-2030 are based on the latest diabetes forecasting model created by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) which projects diabetes prevalence to 2050, published by Boyle and colleagues in 2010.1
The prevalence rate projection of undiagnosed diabetes is an extrapolation of CDC National Diabetes Fact Sheet data for 2005 to 2012.2,3,4,5
Prevalence rate trend lines for non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics and blacks for the entire United States are from a previous version of the CDC 2050 projections by Narayan6 and adjusted to fit the latest projections by Boyle.
State and metropolitan area minority statistics were not done because the latest U.S. Census Bureau state minority projections were made using 1990 census data, which would not provide realistic forecasts to 2030.
Population projections out to 2030 for the U.S. (including minority groups), states, and metropolitan areas come from the U.S. Census Bureau.7,8,9,10
The future risks of pre-diabetes, major complications and deaths are projected from current CDC trends as reported in several source documents.11,12,13,14
The future estimates of medical and non-medical (societal) costs of diabetes are based on research by the American Diabetes Association.15
Prevalence rates for seniors are based on the recent CDC National Diabetes Fact Sheet 2012 data.
The forecasts factor in progressive, but modest, improvements in early diagnosis and treatment between 2015 and 2030 based on the trends of the last 10 years.
1 Boyle JP, Thompson TJ, Gregg EW, Barker LE, Williamson DF. Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality and prediabetes prevalence. Popul Health Metr. 2010;8:29.
2 CDC, National Diabetes Fact Sheet, United States 2005. http://www.ndep.nih.gov/media/2005_National_Diabetes_Fact_Sheet.pdf?redi…. Accessed February 6, 2015.
3 CDC, National Diabetes Fact Sheet, 2007, http://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/5613/. Accessed February 6, 2015.
4 CDC, National Diabetes Fact Sheet, 2011. http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/pubs/pdf/ndfs_2011.pdf. Accessed February 6, 2015.
5 CDC, National Diabetes Statistics Report, 2014, http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/pubs/statsreport14/national-diabetes-report-…. Accessed February 6, 2015.
6 Narayan, et al. Impact of Recent Increase in Incidence on Future Diabetes Burden: U.S., 2005-2050, Diabetes Care 2006; 29:2114-2116.
7 U.S. Census Bureau 2012 National Population Projections 2015-2060. http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2012/summaryt…. Accessed February 4, 2015.
8 U.S. Census Bureau 2005 Interim State Population Projections 2000-2030. http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/state/projectionsagese…. Accessed February 4, 2015.
9 Bizjournals. Projected population of 250 U.S. metros. (http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/pages/257.html. Accessed July 30, 2010 for original study (no longer available online).
10 Demographia United States Metropolitan Areas: 2030 Population Projections. http://www.demographia.com/db-msaproj2030.pdf. Accessed February 4, 2015.
11 CDC, Diabetes Public Health Resource, Visual Impairment. http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/statistics/visual/index.htm. Accessed February 4, 2015.
12 CDC, Diabetes Public Health Resource, End-State Renal Failure. http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/statistics/esrd/index.htm. Accessed February 4, 2015.
13 CDC, Diabetes Public Health Resource, Hospitalization for Lower Extremity Amputation. http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/statistics/lea/index.htm. Accessed February 4, 2015.
14 National Vital Statistics Reports; Death: Final Data for 2000 = NSVR Vol. 50 No. 16; 2001 = NSVR Vol. 52 No. 9; 2002 = NSVR Vol. 53 No. 5; 2003 = NSVR Vol. 54 No. 13; 2004 = NSVR Vol. 55 No. 19; 2005 = NSVR Vol. 56. No. 10; 2006 = NSVR Vol. 57 No. 14; 2007 = NSVR Vol. 58 No. 19; 2008 = NSVR Vol. 59 No. 10; 2009 = NSVR Vol. 60 No. 3; 2010 = Vol. 61 No. 4. Find at: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/nhsr.htm. Accessed February 5, 2015.
15 American Diabetes Association. Economic costs of diabetes in the U.S. in 2012. Diabetes Care. 2013;36:1033-1046.
American Diabetes Association
Centers for Disease Control – Diabetes Public Resource
National Diabetes Prevention Program
Rowley William R, Bezold Clement, Arikan Yasemin, Byrne Erin, and Krohe Shannon. Diabetes 2030: Insights from Yesterday, Today, and Future Trends. Population Health Management. April 2016, ahead of print. Doi:10.1089/pop.2015.0181.